Paradigm shift to combat disaster

We need to move away from international rescue post-disaster to local action to prevent/mitigate disaster.We need a new paradigm that provides local people with information and action-empowerment.It is not difficult to develop early warning systems using the electronic media and local communication networks.

The cost of rebuilding Pakistan after its devastating floods could exceed an estimated $10 to $15 billion.

But what caused this catastrophic event which has resulted in about 2,000 deaths, made two million homeless and badly affected the lives of as many as 20 million people? And how can such catastrophes be prevented in the future?
    
It looks as if too much rain in Pakistan would have nothing to do with too little rain (drought) in Russia, but in fact the two are connected, and much has already been written on that.

In the present closely interconnected world, local problems do have regional and global implications. Interestingly, such global disasters sometimes can very well be prevented if we place the required local-level system in a proper order.

This is why Dr Peter McCawley, a development economist and disaster specialist at the Australian National University, asserts that a ''paradigm shift'' is required to avoid such large-scale disasters.
    
The new paradigm calls for building up informal institutions and effectively communicating risks to local communities. This essentially means moving from international and national response after the disaster to local action before the catastrophe.

In this context, it should be noted that according to recent media reports Pakistan severely lacks in localised flood warning systems.

It is believed to be a crucial factor that could have prevented the loss of life and of property on a large scale during the current floods.
    
But the question arises, how to do that, especially in countries without functional democracy, where the local people do not have appropriate agencies to address such issues?

If we think deeply, we find that the situation is not so gloomy in the present electronic age intertwined with a powerful media and communication systems that surpass territorial boundaries.

Given the absence of formal institutions, we need to explore the scope and strength of communication technology for its constructive utilisation to inform people in advance of a possible disaster.
    
If responsible media groups, prudent citizens and NGOs come forward to develop and put in place in a system to prevent and reduce the adverse impact of natural catastrophes, they can use these channels of communication to work as part of early warning systems.

In fact, the beauty of such informal communication networks is that their end-components such as radios and mobile phones are reliable and effective because economies of scale have made them accessible to lower income groups and these work even when commercial power is down, thus ensuring communication and dissemination of information in cases of emergency.
    
Interestingly, such a system has successfully been used in the Philippines where “people-centered” communitybased early warning systems that have empowered individuals and communities threatened by natural hazards to act in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner.
    
Except highly localised and short-term flash floods, regional-scale flood disasters, like that of Pakistan, have intercontinental meteorological and hydrological linkages, which can easily be monitored and shared among territories of more democratic and technologically enabled countries like India.

India has an honourable history of its government not disrupting the flow of common rivers even during times of war. One can expect that India can take a lead to initiate such measures that can help not only its own citizens but also people at large in the Indian subcontinent.
    
Besides the multidimensional benefits, such initiatives will be more cost-effective than the total cost of a disaster in terms of losses and the funds required for post-disaster rescue and rehabilitation programmes.

Given that, even international donor agencies would like support such an initiative.
    
Concerned NGOs and the electronic media in India need to come out with innovative solutions to network with meteorological and hydrological organisations and disseminate the information through all possible ways within and outside the territory of India to alert people in vulnerable areas where disasters are expected to strike.

Only then can the desired paradigm shift emerge and succeed at the local level. In a business-as-usual scenario, natural disasters will continue to create a variety of problems that have serious regional and global-scale socioeconomic and geopolitical implications.